(PhatzRadio Sports / USA Today Sports) —- The Houston Astros have run away with the American League West and built a seemingly insurmountable 16 1/2-game lead. As the second half dawns, USA TODAY Sports’ Kevin Santo examines an AL field that, outside of Houston, is in far more flux than had been anticipated.
AL East
Boston Red Sox (50-39)
What went right: The investment in Chris Sale. The ace started the All-Star Game, and rightly so, as his 178 strikeouts lead the majors.
What needs attention: The Red Sox have hit the fewest homers in the AL (92), but just four teams in the majors get on base more than them.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Red Sox are 31/2 games up on the Yankees and the Rays, and it’s looking like whichever team loses the division title will lock up at least one wild-card spot.
New York Yankees (45-41)
What went right: Aaron Judge. The right fielder has a chance to double as rookie of the year and AL MVP, leading the majors with 30 home runs and a 1.139 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). He broke Joe DiMaggio’s record for home runs by a Yankees rookie, too.
What needs attention: Right-hander Dellin Betances has deteriorated as of late, and the bullpen has followed suit. No AL bullpen allowed more walks per nine innings in June, and Betances has allowed nine earned runs in his last 52/3 innings.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Yankees have scored more runs than any team in the AL other than the Astros. If their pitching can’t come around in time to catch the Red Sox, their offense figures to carry them to a wild card.
Tampa Bay Rays (47-43)
What went right: A power surge. The Rays are third in the AL with 133 home runs, led by first baseman Logan Morrison’s 24.
What needs attention: With Craig Kimbrel in the same division, you might have missed the fact that right-hander Alex Colome is second in the majors with 25 saves.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Rays already added shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and could augment further.
Baltimore Orioles (42-46)
What went right: Almost nothing. The Orioles tied a major league record by allowing five or more runs in 20 consecutive games.
What needs attention: The pitching staff. The Orioles have the worst ERA in the majors, and right-hander Chris Tillman — once a staple of the rotation — has a 7.90 ERA through the first half.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. Too many problems, too many good teams ahead of them.
Toronto Blue Jays (41-47)
What went right: Justin Smoak. The first baseman garnered his first All-Star Game selection and is leading the team in every major batting category.
What needs attention: This once-dominant offense ranks 14th in AL runs scored.
Contend or pretend: Pretend.Much like the Orioles, the Blue Jays are stuck.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians (47-40)
What went right: Being in the AL Central. Despite hovering around .500 for most of the first half, the Indians kept their heads above water long enough to correct their issues and claim the lead.
What needs attention: The rotation. The Indians were ninth in the AL with a 3.97 team ERA in April, but it has improved every month and they now top the AL with a 3.78 mark.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Can they be even better than the 2016 pennant winners? It’s possible.
Minnesota Twins (45-43)
What went right: Miguel Sano. The 24-year-old third baseman leads the Twins in runs, RBI and home runs. The troubling twist is no Twin is within 20 of his RBI.
What needs attention: Ervin Santana’s supporting cast. The right-hander is carrying the Twins with a 2.99 ERA and 10 wins, but right-hander Jose Berrios is the only other starter with an ERA below 4.00.
Contend or pretend: Contend. But send pitching help, please.
Kansas City Royals (44-43)
What went right: Jason Vargas. The 34-year-old left-hander has the most wins and lowest ERA in the AL. Outside of Vargas, though, the Royals haven’t gotten much help from the mound.
What needs attention: The Royals have, by several measures, the worst offense in the AL and most notably a .300 on-base percentage.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Still within reach of the Indians, still hard to kill.
Detroit Tigers (39-48)
What went right: Michael Fulmer. With a 3.19 ERA, Fulmer has been the sole source of consistency in a Tigers rotation with only one other hurler who has started 10 or more games.
What needs attention: The bullpen. Releasing right-hander Francisco Rodriguez hasn’t made any problems go away, as the Tigers have a 5.04 ERA among relievers. Only the Nationals have a worse mark.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Tigers don’t have nearly enough consistency from the mound to climb back and catch the Indians or Twins and likely will be sellers in the near future.
Chicago White Sox (38-49)
What went right: Not much. Right fielder Avisail Garcia has been a bright spot, but the White Sox are stuck with the lowest win total in the AL and have an offense and pitching staff hovering between bad and mediocre.
What needs attention: The starting rotation. Left-hander Jose Quintana is leading the White Sox with a 4.49 ERA and, well, that explains a lot.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The White Sox are nine games out of first place and last in the wild-card standings. And after trading Quintana to the Cubs, the second half could be ugly.
AL West
Houston Astros (60-29)
What went right: Everything?
What needs attention: Believe it or not, the best pitcher on the AL’s best team might be under-appreciated. Right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. is 7-2 in 16 starts with a 3.05 ERA and 106 strikeouts. He made sure the Astros didn’t lose steam since Dallas Keuchel reinjured his neck in June.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Astros look like they can win the whole thing.
Los Angeles Angels (45-47)
What went right: They stayed alive. They are only two games below .500 and three games out of the wild card despite losing center fielder Mike Trout at the end of May.
What needs attention: Trout’s return. The 1.203 OPS he posted through 163 at-bats still leads the majors. Normally, we’d rule that out given a limited sample size, but this is Mike Trout we’re talking about.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Angels have wild-card hopes. It’s an uphill climb, but it’s worth watching what boost Trout’s return might provide.
Texas Rangers (43-45)
What went right: Production at the plate. The Rangers have scored 444 runs, trailing only the Astros and the Yankees in the AL.
What needs attention: Yu Darvish can only do so much. He leads the Rangers with six wins, a 3.49 ERA and 125 strikeouts in 1182/3 innings. The next-highest total for innings pitched is Martin Perez with 88.
Contend or pretend: Contend. With Cole Hamels healthy, the three-game wild-card deficit is worth attacking.
Seattle Mariners (43-47)
What went right: All-Star week? DH Nelson Cruz and second baseman Robinson Cano stole the headlines with a picture with Joe West and a game-winning homer, respectively.
What needs attention: The starting rotation has been a rotating door. The Mariners have used 14 starters and the rotation ranks 21st in ERA.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. Too many significant mound issues.
Oakland Athletics (39-50)
What went right: Khris Davis has established himself as one of the best power hitters in the game for the second consecutive year, leading the team in home runs and RBI.
What needs attention: Pitching. There might be no reliable starter beyond lefty Sean Manaea.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The division is locked up and the Athletics are way too deep in the wild-card pack. Billy Beane is already looking toward next season.
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The World Series champion Chicago Cubs begin the second half two games under .500 and 5 1/2 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central. USA TODAY Sports’ Kevin Santo examines an NL field that is trying to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
NL East
Washington Nationals (52-36)
What went right: A lot. The Nationals had the most starters in the All-Star Game, right fielder Bryce Harper posted MVP-caliber numbers and right-hander Max Scherzer has led Washington’s pitching staff in a typical fashion — finishing the first half with the lowest ERA in the majors (2.10) and the second-most strikeouts (173).
What needs attention: The bullpen — still. Expect significant changes soon for the majors’ worst unit.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Nationals have a 91/2-game lead on the Braves in the East, and, pitching issues aside, their offense hasn’t shown any signs of cooling off — even after major injuries to Adam Eaton and Trea Turner.
Atlanta Braves (42-45)
What went right: EnderInciarte. The center fielder was his team’s only All-Star representative, thanks to a .302 batting average and 112 hits, a mark that trailed only Charlie Blackmon of the Rockies in the NL.
What needs attention: A rotation lacking a true stopper.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. Opening the second half against the Diamondbacks, Cubs and Dodgers won’t help them in their wild-card pursuit.
Miami Marlins (41-46)
What went right: The outfield corners. Left fielder Marcell Ozuna leads the Marlins in every major batting category except home runs, and that spot belongs to right fielder Giancarlo Stanton.
What needs attention: Stanton has picked up steam at the plate. He has hit five homers in 36 at-bats in July.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Nationals are ruining a lot of seasons in the NL East, and the Marlins are nine games out of the wild card.
New York Mets (39-47)
What went right: Yoenis Cespedes got hurt. No foul intentions here, but the injury forced manager Terry Collins’ hand and made room for Michael Conforto’s emergence.
What needs attention: The rotation has been doomed by injuries. After finishing as the third-best staff in the NL, right-handers Noah Syndergaard’s and Matt Harvey’s injuries have left the Mets 14th in team ERA.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Mets won’t be healthy in time to make a playoff push.
Philadelphia Phillies (29-58)
What went right: Just about nothing. The Phillies have the worst record in the majors.
What needs attention: Right-hander Pat Neshek has the best ERA on the Phillies (1.27) and has surrendered just five earned runs.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Phillies are 21 games out of the wild card.
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers (50-41)
What went right: The long ball. The Brewers led the NL in home runs through the first half, keyed by first baseman Eric Thames’ 23.
What needs attention: Corey Knebel, but in a good way. There’s a lot to like about the Brewers, but don’t lose sight of the fact that Knebel has a 1.70 ERA.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Brewers have a 51/2-game lead in an NL Central that has looked very vulnerable.
Chicago Cubs (43-45)
What went right: Compared with last year, very little. They ended the first half with left-hander Jon Lester giving up 10 runs in the first inning, and their offense looks anemic.
What needs attention: The starting rotation. Lester leads the group with a 4.25 ERA, and the Cubs can only wait for so long.
Contend or pretend: Contend, but they will likely need to win the division to do so. We’ll give manager Joe Maddon the benefit of the doubt that the Cubs getting healthy will open the door for a run back to the playoffs. And the addition of left-hander Jose Quintana could go a long way too.
St. Louis Cardinals (43-45)
What went right: The rotation. The Cardinals are third in the NL in team ERA, trailing just the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. That’s not bad company.
What needs attention: Run production. The Cardinals get on base more than just two teams in the NL and are 10th in the NL in runs scored.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Like the Cubs, the Cardinals are just 51/2 games out of first in the division. If they can pick up a middle-of-the-order bat, they could put pressure on the Brewers.
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-47)
What went right: Felipe Rivero and Andrew McCutchen. The left-hander’s 0.76 ERA is the lowest of any reliever in the majors, and McCutchen recovered from an early slump to lead the Pirates in every major batting category while batting .407 with nine homers and 26 RBI since June.
What needs attention: The batters not named McCutchen. The Pirates are 12th in runs in the NL.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Pirates are nine games out of the wild card and seven games out of first in the division.
Cincinnati Reds (39-49)
What went right: First basemanJoey Votto and shortstop Zack Cozart, and that’s about it. Votto leads the Reds in hits, home runs, RBI and on-base percentage, while Cozart earned his first All-Star selection.
What needs attention: The pitching staff. Eleven men have started a game, and few can find the strike zone with consistency.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The playoffs are far out of reach.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (61-29)
What went right: Almost everything, but it’s impossible to ignore the fact that first baseman Cody Bellinger is shattering records and leads the Dodgers in home runs and RBI after making an April 25 debut.
What needs attention: The Dodgers entered the break having won 26 of their last 30, and their +163 run differential was the best in NL history heading into the second half.
Contend or pretend: Contend. Obviously.
Arizona Diamondbacks (53-36)
What went right: Zack Greinke’s revival.
What needs attention: Left-hander Robbie Ray is dominating teams on the road. He boasts a 1.34 ERA with 73 strikeouts away from Chase Field.
Contend or pretend: Contend. The Diamondbacks are in the unenviable position of playing in a division that features the Dodgers and Rockies. Losses against those teams could hurt, but they’re leading the NL wild-card race.
Colorado Rockies (52-39)
What went right: So much, especially after finishing 2016 at 75-87. But the massive gains made by the pitchers must be front and center.
What needs attention: Nolan Arenado. The Rockies third baseman is tied for first in the NL with 70 RBI, highlighting a Rockies offense that is third in the NL.
Contend or pretend: Contend. They picked the wrong year to blossom, but they should make the playoffs for the first time since 2009.
San Diego Padres (38-50)
What went right: Very little. In fairness, the Padres are the youngest team in the majors, but they don’t have a single player who has played more than 40 games with a batting average above .300.
What needs attention: The offense, and badly. With a .294 on-base percentage and 312 runs, the Padres rank last in the majors.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. For the foreseeable future.
San Francisco Giants (34-56)
What went right: Buster Posey. The catcher has a .324 batting average and an on-base plus slugging percentage of .904.
What needs attention: The pitching staff. Madison Bumgarner’s return should help, but disappointment abounds beyond Jeff Samardzija. It’s looking pretty ugly.
Contend or pretend: Pretend. The Giants have the second-worst record in baseball.