(PhatzRadio Sports / USA Today Sports) —- This could be the trade deadline everyone has dreamed of, flooded with sexy names, All-Star starting pitchers, and a surplus to overhaul the playoff landscape.
Sure, at the moment the two-team wild card format has plenty of dreamers hanging around the fringes of contention – in the American League, no team is further than 4 1/2 games out of a playoff slot entering Monday.
The Chicago White Sox still are the only team who have publicly declared that they’re selling off their best pieces, with an operator standing by ready to take your offer. Yet, several races – notably the AL West and NL East – have the potential to turn into runaways. Certainly, so much can change in the next two months.
As we take Turn 1 at the Major League Baseball Speedway, here are the top 25 trade candidates based on the player’s probability of being traded, and value:
1. Closer David Robertson, Chicago White Sox: Remember when the White Sox were trying to almost give away Robertson all winter, and nearly traded him to the Washington Nationals for 19-year-old left-hander Jesus Luzardo and minor-league infielder Drew Ward, while willing to eat nearly half of his contract? Well, Robertson has since yielded just 11 hits and struck out 28 in 19 2/3 innings. Considering the Nats still need a closer, and the New York Mets are desperate for one, the price tag continues to climb, particularly knowing that Robertson is under control through 2018. He’ll definitely be gone by July 31.
2. Starter Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: The A’s finally have a healthy stud on their hands, and whoever lands him will have him under control through 2019. Anyone who saw his increased velocity and 11 strikeouts in just seven innings against the Miami Marlins are salivating. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros were paying attention. The A’s can act coy, but they want to move him while they have great value on their hands.
3. Starter Jose Quintana, White Sox: OK, he’s certainly not pitching like an ace these days (2-6, 4.82 ERA), but he’s still a guy who has pitched 200 innings four consecutive years and has a career 3.49 ERA. And he’s anything but a rental, owed a team-friendly $33 million through 2020.
4. Right fielder J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers: There will be no position player on the market with more value than Martinez, who’s tearing it up since opening the year on the DL, hitting .288 with eight homers, 17 RBI and a 1.202 on-base plus slugging percentage in his first 17 games. The Tigers have yet to determine whether they’ll trade him, but considering they want to go younger and cheaper, he’s the ideal player to start their transition phase should they continue to struggle.
5. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals: The Royals will be shopping all of their potential free agents, and no one has more value than Cain, a premier defensive center fielder getting on base at a .355 clip. The only downside is he’s a free agent after the season.
6. Starter Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins: Let’s face it, the Twins’ success is throwing a wrench into their rebuilding project. They would love to trade Santana (7-2, 1.75 ERA), knowing his value will never be higher, but this darn winning is getting in the way. Still, as long as the front office has the stomach for it, they’ll move Santana, knowing it’s the right move for organization’s future.
7. Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins: The Marlins wouldn’t be stupid enough to trade Ozuna, 26, who’s having another outstanding year (.306, 12 homers, 34 RBI) and is under control for two more years, would they? Sure, it’s the Marlins. Ownership was infuriated at former manager Dan Jennings for even playing him two years ago, not wanting to start his arbitration clock. He would bring in a nice haul ransom for an organization that needs to hit the re-set button.
8. First baseman Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals: The Royals don’t want to take the chance of him walking away and getting nothing in return, so will trade him, and hope to re-sign him in the off-season. A three-time Gold Glover, Hosmer has just five homers but is batting .300.
9. Starter Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays: History stands rudely in the way of Cobb finishing the year with the Rays with free agency just five months away. Melvin Upton is the only player to ever finish out his entire rookie contract with the Rays without being extended or traded. Considering the Rays have no intention of extending Cobb, he will be dealt. He’s having a solid year, 4-4, 3.67 ERA, but most important, he is healthy again.
10. Shortstop Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds: He’s the best offensive shortstop in baseball these days with a ridiculous slash line of .344/.422/.569, and still is an elite defender. He’s a free agent at the season’s conclusion, and the ideal trade chip for the Reds.
11. Closer Tony Watson, Pittsburgh Pirates: He may not be the ideal closer for contenders, but this lefty can fit into the back end of anyone’s bullpen. The Pirates have a history of trading away closers before hitting free agency, and Watson will be no different.
12. Reliever Brad Hand, San Diego Padres: Scouts are enamored with the lefty’s stuff, striking out 38 batters in 29 2/3 innings. The beauty of Hand also is that he’s earning just $1.375 million and is under control through 2019.
13. Starter Chris Archer, Rays: The Rays aren’t necessarily motivated to move him, but they will certainly listen, and see if anyone meets their steep asking price. The Chicago Cubs – who traded Archer to Tampa Bay in 2011 – are enamored with him, and who doesn’t love that he’s under control through 2021 at $30.25 million after this year.
14. Second baseman Jed Lowrie, Athletics: He may be 33, but he’s ranked among the top five of all second basemen with his .293 batting average and .837 OPS. He also comes with a friendly $6 million team option.
15. Reliever Kelvin Herrera, Royals: Just the latest closer to come through Kansas City that’s appetizing to every contender. The two-time All-Star is having a mediocre start, yielding 22 hits in 21 innings, but striking out 22. The Royals don’t have to trade him, since he’s under control through 2018, but it certainly increases his value.
16. First baseman Yonder Alonso, Athletics: He’s having a breakout year, as he has emerged as a completely different hitter with more home runs (14) in 148 plate appearances than he did in 934 plate appearances in 2015 and 2016. For someone looking for power, and believing his rejuvenation is real, he may be an ideal fit.
17. Third baseman Mike Moustakas, Royals: Is there a more ideal fit than Moustakas being traded to the New York Mets? Moustakas, who’s a free agent at the season’s conclusion, has 13 homers and 26 RBI. The Mets badly need the help. The question is whether they believe they can be in the race to make it worthwhile.
18. Reliever Pat Neshek, Philadelphia Phillies: Neshek, 36, is pitching as well as he ever has in his career, yielding a 0.98 ERA, allowing just 13 hits and three walks in 18 1/3 innings. The way relief pitching is coveted these days, who wouldn’t want him?
19. Starter Jason Vargas, Royals: Vargas has never had more value since joining the Royals, going 6-3 with a 2.39 ERA. Who knows how long it will last, but the Royals would be foolish to find out. This is the final year of the left-hander’s four-year, $32 million deal and he could provide nice depth for a contender such as the Yankees.
20. Third baseman Todd Frazier, White Sox: The White Sox don’t want him to be part of their future, have no need for him, but sure could use him performing better. He hit 40 homers with 98 RBI last year, but this year is batting just .181 with six homers and 21 RBI. He could be a cheap fit for the Mets too, if the White Sox pay a portion of his $12 million contract.
21. Closer A.J. Ramos, Marlins: He has a 4.67 ERA, and he’s walking too many hitters, but still this is a guy who saved 72 games in 2015-2016. He also is under control through the 2018 season.
22. Outfielder Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves: The Braves got him in a straight salary dump with the San Diego Padres when they moved Hector Olivera, but the Braves are the ones reaping the dividends. He is hitting .305 with 20 homers and 66 RBI in 95 games since the trade, and batting .337 with eight homers and 27 RBI this year. He still is owed $21.5 million a year through 2019, but if the Braves swallow a significant part of the contract, they could find some takers, particularly in the AL.
23. Second baseman Yangervis Solarte, Padres: Who can’t use an impact infielder who’s not making much money? Solartes’ value has dropped after his career year of a year ago, hitting just .245 with a .671 OPS, but makes just $2.5 million this year, $4 million in 2018 with a $5.5 million club option in 2019.
24. Reliever Ryan Madson, Oakland A’s: He’s had a nice bounce-back season, with a 0.96 ERA, yielding 16 hits in 19 innings, but still is overpaid at $7.5 million a season through 2018. If the A’s eat some of the money, he’ll be a nice addition to anyone’s bullpen.
25. Starter Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: If the Pirates are serious about moving him, Cole would jump to the head of the class. He not only is a bona fide ace, but under control through 2019. It will take a ransom to acquire him.